| Title | BPRC mesoscale numerical weather prediction during the 1999/2000 Antarctic field season |
| Author | Cassano, J.J.; Li, L.; Bromwich, D.H. |
| Author Affil | Cassano, J.J., Ohio State University, Byrd Polar Research Center, Columbus, OH |
| Source | Miscellaneous Publication of the Byrd Polar Research Center, No.M-419, p.56-59, ; Antarctic weather forecasting workshop, Columbus, OH, May 17-19, 2000, edited by E.N. Cassano and L.R. Everett; U. S., National Science Foundation. Publisher: Ohio State University, Byrd Polar Research Center, Columbus, OH, United States |
| Publication Date | 2000 |
| Notes | In English. 16 refs. Ant. Acc. No: 84192. GeoRef Acc. No: 284834 |
| Index Terms | precipitation (meteorology); climate; clouds (meteorology); glacial geology; humidity; ice sheets; meteorology; polar regions; forecasting; statistical analysis; water vapor; wind (meteorology); polar regions; Antarctica--Ross Ice Shelf; Antarctica; atmospheric precipitation; clouds; hydrostatic pressure; numerical analysis; numerical models; parameterization; prediction; Ross Ice Shelf; winds |
| Abstract | Real-time operational forecasts for the Antarctic continent, show a modified version of the Pennsylvania State University fifth generation mesoscale model (MM5) which are produced by the Polar Meteorology Group (PMG) at Byrd Polar Research Center. This paper describes the model used, forecast cycle, and a limited verification for January 2000. The Polar MM5 forecasts is found to reproduce the temporal changes in the near surface air temperature, pressure, wind speed, and wind direction at most sites with a reasonable level of skill. Unexpectedly, the model forecast skill remains relatively good longer term (72 forecasts). Time series plots of the observed and predicted near surface air temperature at the South Pole and surface pressure an relative humidity at Willie Field are shown in four figures. The Polar MM5 simulations during January 2000 reproduce most of the synoptic variability in the AWS observations of pressure at Willie Field. The time series plot shows a high frequency, irregular oscillation in the modeled surface pressure. Oscillations of this type are found at other location in the model domain, and decrease in magnitude with increasing forecast duration. The source of these oscillations is still under investigation. The modeled near surface relative humidity is of similar magnitude to the observations at Willie Field during January. The model does not reproduce the large variability in the observed relative humidity time series. This shortcoming may be a reflection of the limited number of moisture observations available in the Antarctic for incorporation into the operational analyses and forecast models, which pose a potential problem for boundary layer cloud forecasting in the Antarctic. |
| Publication Type | conference paper or compendium article |
| Record ID | 62005124 |