| Title | Possibilities for seasonal climate prediction in the Ross Sea sector of the Antarctic |
| Author | Bromwich, D.H.; Sinclair, E.N. |
| Author Affil | Bromwich, D.H., Ohio State University, Byrd Polar Research Center, Columbus, OH |
| Source | Miscellaneous Publication of the Byrd Polar Research Center, No.M-419, p.64-66, ; Antarctic weather forecasting workshop, Columbus, OH, May 17-19, 2000, edited by E.N. Cassano and L.R. Everett; U. S., National Science Foundation. Publisher: Ohio State University, Byrd Polar Research Center, Columbus, OH, United States |
| Publication Date | 2000 |
| Notes | In English. 6 refs. Ant. Acc. No: 84194. GeoRef Acc. No: 284832 |
| Index Terms | precipitation (meteorology); climate; evaporation; meteorology; moisture; forecasting; statistical analysis; sublimation; Southern Ocean--Ross Sea; Antarctica--West Antarctica; anomalies; Antarctica; atmospheric precipitation; El Nino; La Nina; prediction; Ross Sea; seasonal variations; Southern Ocean; time series analysis; West Antarctica |
| Abstract | The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) produce operational numerical analyses in order to calculate the moisture flux convergence (MFC) into the West Antarctic sector bounded by 120°W and 180°W meridians and by the 75°S and 90°S parallels. MFC equals precipitation minus evaporation/sublimation (P-E) as part of the atmospheric moisture budget. A figure shows that there is a strong in-phase relation between MFC into this sector and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) from the early 1980s to 1990. The relation then abruptly switches to a strong anti-phase relationship from 1990 to the end of the time series. This paper considers whether the strong SOI signal in the area of the Ross Sea-Ross Ice Shelf and Marie Byrd Land can be applied to discern aspects of SOI. In addition, annual means to filter out short-term variability is considered and the dominant circulation changes are emphasized. It is proposed to use the strong SOI modulation of the MFC as a predictor of the average conditions to be expected during the Antarctic field season in the Ross Sea sector. Ice core records can be retrieved that will provide annual time series of the MFC variations for the past several decades. These can be used to establish the duration and variability of the circulation or phases. These records can also be used to stratify the 45-year McMurdo Station meteorological record according to the circulation phase and to the sign of the SOI and thus explore which variables are strongly and persistently modulated by the SOI. |
| Publication Type | conference paper or compendium article |
| Record ID | 62005126 |